Major Indexes in US markets are unfolding a five wave sequence move from market lows during the past 2 weeks. In fact July was the best month since 2020 for stock market after a free fall of several months that brought major indexes in  bear market territory.

There are several factors that support our view , that major Us indexes have seen a medium term bottom :

  1. Inflation most probably has topped last month.
  2. Fed rates hake topped too, as Chairman underlined last week in his monthly testimony.
  3. Fed strategy and view is that inflationary pressures will be around 5% at the end of the year and 2023 will start decreasing.
  4. The majority of the tech stocks lost 70-95% of their bubble capitalization.
  5. Two FAANG stocks  – META and NFLX  – lost 2/3 of their capitalization while APPL 30%.
  6. NFLX latest results may point a turn around story and an investment opportunity
  7. MSFT and GOOG issued a positive guidance for the next quarters regarding their vies on profits and Sales.
  8. AAPL and AMZN proved that quality management can generate money and sales under all macroeconomic conditions, even in a recession.
  9. AAPL continues to be a favorite growth story for all investors globally.
  10. SPX unfolded in a 1-2-3 move from  pandemic lows and most probably completed a wave 4 . A wave 5 is due .
  11. Wave structure remained complicated and difficult to name which is a characteristic of 4 waves.
  12. Overall market sentiment was and still is too pessimistic. Another characteristic of bottoms.
  13. Economic conditions are still negative and macro environment is challenging for monetary and fiscal authorities, yet bottoms are forming in exactly such places.

To be continued